Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote. Use the table ...
"what-if" interactive lets you pick the winner of each state and see how it would shift the range of outcomes in our 2024 presidential election forecast.
Here's what the 2024presidentialelectionmap looks like based on the latest odds for the swing states, plus the default vote allocation for the rest of the 42 states and the District of ...
Dive into the weeds of our new Harris-Trump model. For 2024, 538 has built a new presidentialelectionforecast model. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the ...